The 1995-2005 Job Outlook in Brief
The 1995-2005 Job Outlook in
Brief
by Geoffrey C. Gradler and Kurt E. Schrammel
Geoffrey C. Gradler and Kurt E. Schrammel are
economists in
the Office of Employment Projections, BLS.
"What do you want to be when you finish school?"
The answers you can give to this question keep
changing.
Occupations that once offered solid careers are
in decline,
while positions once unheard of are now among
the
fastestgrowing. About the only thing that hasn't
changed in
the past 40 years is the relentlesspace of change
itself.
Consumer demand, technology, and business practices
are all
inconstant flux. In today's rapidly changing,
international
marketplace, it is increasinglyimportant for people
who are
planning their careers to be aware of what occupations
willbe in demand in the future. We can not stop
the tide;
the best we can do is to know whichway it is running.
For the U. S. economy as a whole, the
tide is rising.
The $5-trillion economy of 1992 isprojected to
reach $6 to
$7.2 trillion in 2005. Employment is expected
to reach
147.5million in 2005, an increase of 22 percent
or 26
million jobs above the 1992 level. Thefollowing
pages point
out which occupations will benefit most from this
growth and
whichwill lose out. They give the numerical and
percent
change in employment and a summaryof job prospects
for the
1992-2005 period for about 250 occupations.
The next few pages discuss factors
that affect
employment in an occupation, describe theassumptions
used in
making the projections, and discuss general trends.
Why Employment Changes
The number of workers employed in any occupation
depends in
large part on the demandfor the goods or services
provided
by those workers. Over the last decade or so,
forexample,
increased use of computers by businesses, schools,
scientific organizations, andgovernment agencies
has
contributed to large increases in the number of
systems
analysts,programmers, and computer repairers.
Even if the
demand for goods and servicesprovided by a group
of workers
rises employment may not increase at all or may
increasemore
slowly than demand because of changes in the ways
goods are
produced andservices are provided. In fact, some
changes in
technology and business practices causeemployment
to
decline. For example, while the volume of paperwork
to
process isexpected to increase dramatically, the
employment
of typists and word processors willprobably fall.
This
reflects the growing use of word processing equipment
that
increasesthe productivity of these workers and
permits other
office workers to do more of theirown typing.
Using information on the demand for
goods and services,
advances in technology,changes in business practices,
and
the occupational composition of industries, economistsat
BLS
have developed three sets of projections of the
economy in
2005. Each set wasdeveloped in light of a series
of
assumptions about the future. The various sets
refleddifferent the assumptions about such factors
as growth
of the labor force, output,productivity, inflation,
and
unemployment. Referred to as the low-, moderate-,
and high-
growth scenarios, each provides a different employment
estimate for most occupations.The scenarios should
not be
viewed as the bounds of employment growth but
asillustrations of what might happen under different
conditions. All the data in the "Brief"come
from the
moderate-growth projections. Any projection
of future
employment growth is clouded by uncertainty.
Unforeseenchanges in technology or the balance
of trade
could radically alter future employment forindividual
occupations. A few of the uncertainties that blur
our view
of the economy in2005 are highlighted in the accompanying
box, "Past Trends and Future Uncertainties."
Employment Through the Year 2005
Between 1992 and 2005, employment will rise
from 121.1
million to 147.5 million. Thissection gives a
brief overview
of projected employment change. It focuses on
thefollowing
12 clusters of occupations based on the Federal
Government's
StandardOccupational Classification (SOC) system:
* Executive, administrative, and managerial
occupations
* Professional specialty occupations
* Technicians and related support occupations
* Marketing and sales occupations
* Administrative support occupations, including
clerical
* Service occupations
* Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related
occupations
* Mechanics, installers, and repairers
* Construction trades and extractive occupations
* Production occupations
* Transportation and material moving occupations
* Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers,
and laborers.
Keep in mind that a particular occupation may
not follow the
trend projected for its group.Therefore, you should
refer to
the table on pages XX to XX for the outlook in
a
specificoccupation. An index of individual occupations
appears on page XX.
Executive, administrative, and managerial
occupations.
Workers in executive,administrative, and managerial
occupations establish policies, make plans,
determinestaffing requirements, and direct the
activities of
businesses, government agencies, andother organizations.
Workers in management support occupations, such
as
accountant andauditor or underwriter, provide
technical
assistance to managers.
Growth due to the increasing number
and complexity of
business operations will beoffset somewhat by
corporate
restructuring and downsizing of management, resulting
inaverage growth for executive, administrative,
and
managerial occupations. Because theseworkers are
employed
throughout the economy, differences in the rate
of expansion
forindividual industries will produce varying
rates of
employment change for particular kindsof managers
and
support workers. For example, employment of health
services
managerswill grow much faster than average, whereas
wholesale and retail buyers are expected togrow
more slowly
than average.
Due to growth in the number of people
seeking these
positions and the increasinglytechnical skills
required,
jobseekers with previous work experience, specialized
training, orgraduate study have an advantage in
competition
for jobs. Familiarity with computers willcontinue
to be
helpful as more managers rely on computerized
information
systems to helpdirect their organizations.
Professional specialty occupations.
This group includes
engineers; architects andsurveyors; computer,
mathematical,
and operations research occupations; life, physical,and
social scientists; lawyers and judges; social,
recreational,
and religious workers;teachers, librarians, and
counselors;
health diagnosing, assessment, and treatingoccupations;
and
communications, visual arts, and performing arts
occupations.Professional workers may provide services
or
conduct research and are employed inalmost every
industry.
As a whole, this group is expected
to continue to grow
faster than average and toincrease its share of
total
employment significantly by 2005. However, growth
rates
forindividual occupations are as diverse as the
jobs these
workers perform. Occupations suchas physical therapist,
human services worker, operations research analyst,
and
computerscientist and systems analyst are expected
to grow
much faster than average. Others, suchas physicist
and
astronomer, mining and nuclear engineer, and dentist
should
grow moreslowly than average. Most new jobs will
be in the
education, business, and health servicesindustries.
Technicians and related support occupations.
This group
includes health technologistsand technicians,
engineering
and science technicians, computer programmers,
toolprogrammers, aircraft pilots, air traffic
controllers,
paralegals, broadcast technicians, andlibrary
technicians.
These workers operate and program technical equipment
and
assistengineers, scientists, physicians, and other
professional workers. Changes in technology,
demographics, and ways of conducting business
will cause
someof these occupations to grow faster than others.
Overall
employment is expected to growfaster than average.
This
group contains one of the fastest growing occupations_
paralegal; its growth will result in part from
the
increasing reliance of lawyers on theseworkers.
Increased
demand for health services from a growing and
aging
population willspur growth for radiological technologist,
medical record technician, surgical technologist,and
electroencephalographic (EEG) technologist. In
fact, jobs
for health technologists andtechnicians are expected
to
account for over half of all the new jobs in this
group.Employment of computer programmers will
also continue
to grow rapidly, as moreorganizations use computers
and the
number of computer applications increases.
Employment growth in other occupations
in this group
will be limited. For example,because of laborsaving
technological advances, employment of broadcast
techniciansshould show little change and employment
of air
traffic controllers should grow slowerthan average.
Marketing and sales occupations. Workers
in this group
sell goods and services,purchase commodities and
property
for resale, and stimulate consumer interest.Employment
is
expected to grow as fast as average because of
the increased
demand forfinancial, travel, and other services.
However,
the rate of growth should be slower thanover the
previous 13
years because these workers are concentrated in
retail
trade, anindustry which will grow more slowly
than in the
past.
A large number of part-time and full-time
positions are
expected to be available forcashiers and retail
trade sales
workers due to the large size and high turnover
of
theseoccupations, as well as employment growth.
Higher
paying sales occupations, such assecurities and
financial
services sales worker, tend to be more competitive
than
retail salesoccupations. Job opportunities will
be best for
well-trained, personable, and ambitiouspeople
who enjoy
selling.
Administrative support occupations,
including clerical.
Workers in this group prepareand record memos,
letters, and
reports; collect accounts; gather and distributeinformation;
operate office machines; and handle other administrative
tasks.
This occupational group will continue
to employ the
largest number of workers,although growth is expected
to be
at the low end of the average range. As a result,
theseoccupations will decline as a proportion
of total
employment by 2005. Despite thetremendous increase
expected
in the volume of clerical tasks to be done,
increasedautomation and other technological changes
will
limit growth in many clericaloccupations, such
as typist,
word processor, and data entry keyer;
bookkeeping,accounting, and auditing clerk; and
telephone
operator. In contrast, teacher aide shouldgrow
much faster
than average as schools increase their use of
these
workers.Receptionists and information clerks are
expected to
experience faster than averagegrowth because these
workers
are concentrated in rapidly growing industries.
Because many administrative support
occupations are
large and have relatively highturnover, opportunities
should
be plentiful for full- and part-time jobs, even
in
slowgrowing occupations.
Service occupations. This group includes
a wide range
of workers in protective, foodand beverage preparation,
health, personal, private household, and cleaning
and
buildingservices. These occupations, as a group,
are
expected to grow faster than average becauseof
a growing
population and economy. Higher personal incomes
and
increased leisure timewill spur demand for many
different
types of services. This group is projected to
add thelargest
number of jobs of any occupational group in the
1992-2005
period.
Among protective service occupations,
the employment of
guards is expected to risemuch faster than average
because
of growing concern over crime. As the number ofprisoners
and
correctional facilities increases, more correction
officers
also will be needed.However, only average employment
growth
is expected for police patrol officer andfirefighter
because
only slow growth in local government spending
is
anticipated. Employment growth will also be
faster than
average for food preparation and serviceoccupations.
Due to
the large size, high turnover, and fast growth
of many food
serviceoccupations_such as chef, cook, and other
kitchen
worker_both full- and part-time jobswill be plentiful.
Growth in personal service, cleaning,
and private
household workers will vary widely.Homemaker-home
health
aide should be one of the fastest growing occupations,
in
partbecause of the substantial increase in the
elderly
population. Private household workers,on the
other hand,
will decline rapidly due to the shift from home
to
institutional childcare.
Among health services occupations,
medical
assistant_one of the fastest growingoccupations
in the
economy_and nursing aide, orderly, and attendant
will grow
muchfaster than average, in response to the aging
population
and expanding health careindustry.
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and
related
occupations. Workers in these occupationscultivate
plants,
breed and raise animals, and catch fish. Although
demand for
food, fiber,and wood is expected to increase as
the world's
population grows, the use of moreproductive farming
and
forestry methods and the consolidation of small
farms
areexpected to result in little or no employment
change in
most of these occupations. Theemployment of farm
operators
and farm workers is expected to decline rapidly,
reflectinggreater productivity; the need for skilled
farm
managers, on the other hand, should result in
average
employment growth for that occupation.
Mechanics, installers, and repairers.
Workers in this
group adjust, maintain, and repairautomobiles,
industrial
equipment, computers, and many other types of
machinery.Average overall growth is expected due
to the
continued importance of mechanical andelectronic
equipment
throughout the economy, but projections vary by
occupation.
Dataprocessing equipment repairer is expected
to be the
fastest growing occupation in thisgroup, reflecting
the
increased use of these types of machines. In sharp
contrast,
twooccupations_communications equipment mechanic,
installer,
and repairer and telephoneinstaller and repairer_are
expected to decline in employment due to
laborsavingadvances.
Construction trades and extractive
occupations. Workers
in this group construct, alter,and maintain buildings
and
other structures or operate drilling and mining
equipment.Virtually all of the new jobs will be
in
construction. An increase in the number ofhouseholds
and
industrial plants, the desire to alter or modernize
existing
structures, andthe need to maintain and repair
highways,
dams, and bridges will result in averageemployment
growth in
construction. In contrast, continued stagnation
in the oil
and gasindustries and low growth in the demand
for coal,
metal, and other minerals will result in adecline
in
employment of extractive workers.
Because the construction industry is
sensitive to
fluctuations in the Nation's economy,employment
in
construction occupations varies from year to year.
Many
constructionworkers become unemployed during downturns
in
construction activity.
Production occupations. These workers
set up, adjust,
operate, and tend machinery anduse handtools and
hand-held
power tools to make goods and assemble products.
Increasesin
imports, overseas production, and automation_including
robotics and advancedcomputer techniques_will
result in a
slight decline in overall employment. For a fewoccupations,
however, employment growth is expected. Expansion
of the
printing andpublishing industry, for example,
will create
average employment growth for printing pressoperator.
Many production occupations are sensitive
to
fluctuations in the business cycle andcompetition
from
imports. When factory orders decline, workers
face
shortenedworkweeks, layoffs, and plant closings.
Transportation and material moving
occupations. Workers
in this group operate theequipment used to move
people and
materials. Although overall employment is expectedto
grow
about as fast as average, prospects vary by occupation.
Subway operator willgrow much faster than average
as more
cities build new systems and expand existing ones.Faster
than average growth is expected for school busdriver,
and
average growth isexpected for taxidriver and chauffeur.
These projections reflect rising school enrollmentsand
growing demand for transportation services. However,
slower
than average growth isexpected in the employment
of material
moving equipment operator because of theincreased
use of
automated material handling systems.
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers,
and laborers.
Workers in these occupationsassist skilled workers
and
perform routine tasks. Overall employment is expected
to
growabout as fast as the average for all occupations.
Growth
will be limited in someoccupations, such as machine
feeder,
due to automation. Many opportunities will arisefrom
the
need to replace workers who leave these occupations,
because
turnover is veryhigh. However, economic downturns
may
substantially lower the number of openings,particularly
for
construction laborer and other occupations in
industries
that are highlysensitive to changes in the economy.
Information in the "Brief"
"The Job Outlook in Brief" provides
thumbnail sketches of
employment data for eachoccupation in the Occupational
Outlook Handbook, 1994-95 edition, on which it
is
based.Nearly all employment estemets are from
the BLS
industry-occupation matrix.Throughout this article,
employment growth rates are compared to the average
for
alloccupations; the box, "Key Phrases in
the Brief,"
explains the terms used. The box alsoexplains
the phrases
used to describe the amount of competition jobseekers
are
likely toencounter. The description of the relationship
between the supply of, and the demand for,workers
in a
specific occupation is highly subjective. It is
based on
information obtainedfrom technical journals and
other
relevant literature, interviews with occupational
experts,historical data, and the judgment of the
analyst who
studied the occupation. Assessing thedegree of
competition
is difficult, although for occupations with lengthy
training
and strictentry requirements, it can be done with
some
accuracy. However, because mostoccupations have
several
routes of entry and flexible requirements, the
potential
supply ofworkers is difficult to measure. For
many
occupations, therefore, no description of jobopportunities
or competition is given.
One last factor to remember when checking
the outlook
for an occupation is that growthin employment
is only one
source of job openings. In fact, BLS projects
that 53
percent ofall job openings over the 1992-2005
period will
arise because of the need to replaceworkers who
transfer to
other occupations or leave the labor force. As
a result,
evenoccupations with slower than average growth
may offer
many jobs for new workers; thisis especially true
of large
occupations.
Beyond the "Brief"
"The Job Outlook in Brief" is only
a starting point for the
exploration of economicprojections or careers.
The
projections in it were produced by BLS as part
of
itsemployment projections program, which develops
new sets
of projections every 2 years.Besides occupational
employment, BLS also projects industry employment,
industryoutlook, labor force activity, and numerous
components of the gross domestic product.This
information is
available in a variety of publications designed
to meet
different needs.
The fall 1993 issue of the Occupational
Outlook
Quarterly contains more than 40 chartsthat illustrate
the
economic. labor force, and employment projections.
Considerably moredetail is available in the November
1993
issue of the Monthly Labor Review. Thesearticles_along
with
additional data_are reprinted in BLS Bulletin
2452, The
AmericanWork Force: 1992-2005 (price: $X.XX).
Occupational
Projections and Training Data,1994 edition, (Bulletin
2451,
price: $X.XX) is statistical supplement to the
OccupationalOutlook Handbook containing current
and
projected employment estimates for about 500occupations.
It
also presents information on occupational separation
rates,
unemploymentrates, and the demographic characteristics
of
workers when such information is available.
People weighing
the advantages of different career choices will
probably
find two otherBLS publications more useful than
the
technical ones: Occupational Outlook Handbook,1994-95
edition (Bulletin 2450, price: $X.XX) and "Matching
Yourself
With the World ofWork in 1992" (price: $1).
"The Job
Outlook in Brief" provides outlook information
in a format
that allows easycomparison of job prospects in
different
fields, employment prospects are not the onlyconsideration
when choosing a certain career. Matching your
goals and
abilities to thework done on the job and the education
required is another important part of choosing
acareer.
Where you want to live and how much money you
want to earn
also are important.Information like this appears
in the
Handbook and "Matching."
The Handbook has been a major source
of career guidance
information for more than 40years. It contains
more about
the outlook for each of the occupations in the
"Brief,"
aswell as information about the nature of the
work, training
and personal qualifications,earnings, and other
subjects.
Originally published in the Fall 1992 OOQ, "Matching"
is
a20-page, tabular presentation similar in format
to the
"Brief." Rather than outlook, Ithighlights
significant job
characteristics, including educational level required,
workingconditions, and interaction with data,
people, and
things (price: $X.XX).
Additional information on job growth
also is available
from State Job Service offices.The outlook for
many
occupations varies considerably among local job
markets.
Forexample, sections of the country with slow
population
growth may have less need forelementary school
teachers than
regions with high growth. State Job Service offices,
listedin the State government section of local
telephone
directories, can provide information onlocal labor
market
conditions. Also, see the section on "Sources
of State and
Local JobOutlook Information" in the Handbook.
Ordering Information
BLS publications are usually available in libraries,
career
centers, and the offices of schoolguidance counselors
and
employment counselors. They are sold by the
GovernmentPrinting Office. Send orders to either
of the
following addresses:
Bureau of Labor Statistics Publication
Sales Center
P.O. Box 2145
Chicago, IL 60690
New Orders
Superintendent of Documents
P.O. Box 371954
Pittsburgh, PA 15250-7954.Payment by check, money
order,
VISA, MasterCard, or GPO deposit account mustaccompany
your
order. Make check or money order payable to the
Superintendent ofDocuments.Key Phrases in the
"Brief"
Changing employment between 1992 and 2005
If the statement about growth reads... Employment
is
projected to...
------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------
Much faster than average Increase 41 percent
or more
Faster than average Increase 27 to
40 percent
About as fast as average Increase 14 to
26 percent
Little change or more slowly
than average Increase 0 to
13
Decline Decrease 1 percent
or more
Opportunities and competition for jobs
If the statement about opportunities reads...
Job
openings compared to
job seekers may be...
Excellent
Much more numerous
Very good
More numerous
Good or favorable About
the same
May face competition Fewer
May face keen competition Much fewer
Reprints of this article will be sold by the Superintendent
of Documents, U.S. GovernmentPrinting Office,
Washington, DC
20402.
The 1992-2005 Job Outlook in Brief
Key:
-----
Occupation Subgroup
Estimated employment 1992
Percent change in employment 1992-2005
Numerical change in employment 1992-2005
EXECUTIVE, ADMINISTRATIVE, AND MANAGERIAL OCCUPATIONS
Accountants and auditors
939,000
32
304,000
Faster than average employment growth will be
spurred
byincreases in the number of businesses and the
complexity
offinancial information. In addition to setting
up books
andpreparing taxes, more accountants and auditors
will
beneeded to tailor financial information and
advisemanagement individually. Those with a bachelor's
or
higherdegree in accounting, particularly CPA's,
should have
goodjob opportunities; however, competition will
remain keen
forprestigious jobs with major accounting and
business
firms.
Administrative services
226,000
13
30,000
Slower than average employment growth will result
frommanagerscorporate restructuring and contracting
of
administrativeservices in an effort to cut costs
will result
in . However,demand for these managers will increase
in
managementservices, management consulting, and
facilities
supportservices firms to which these services
are
contracted. Theample supply of competent, experienced
workers seekingadvancement will result in competition
for
these jobs.
Budget analysts
67,000
20
13,000
Average employment growth is expected for budget
analysts.Businesses and governments seeking to
increase
theirefficiency will create a strong demand for
these
workers.However, computer-induced productivity
gains will
offsetsome of the demand. The large number of
qualified
applicantswill contribute to competition for positions.
Jobseekers with atleast a 4-year college degree,
some
experience, and afamiliarity with financial software
packages will have the bestopportunities.
Construction and building
66,000
30
20,000
Faster than average employment
inspectorsgrowth will stem from increases in the
amount
andcomplexity of construction projects, rising
concern for
publicsafety, and improved quality. Job prospects
will be
best forexperienced craft workers who have some
college
educationor certification.
Construction contractors
180,000
47
85,000
Much faster than average growth should result
from increases
and managers in the size and complexity of construction
and
increasedspending on the Nation's infrastructure_highways,
bridges,dams, schools, subways, airports, and
water and
sewagesystems. Particularly favorable prospects
are expected
forexperienced construction managers with a bachelor's
orhigher degree in construction science with an
emphasis
onconstruction management.
Cost estimators
163,000
30
49,000
Employment is expected to increase faster than
average
asmore estimators will be needed to project the
cost
ofconstruction and manufacturing projects. In
construction,
jobprospects should be best for those workers
who
havesubstantial experience in construction or
those with a
degreein construction management, engineering,
or
architecturaldrafting. In manufacturing, experienced
people
with degreesin engineering, science, mathematics,
businessadministration, or economics and who have
computerexpertise should have the best job prospects.
Education administrators
351,000
23
81,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average
asschool enrollments rise, services provided to
students
grow,efforts to improve the quality of education
continue,
andinstitutions comply with government regulations.
However,stiff competition is expected. Candidates
who have
doctoratedegrees and are willing to relocate should
have the
best jobprospects.
Employment interviewers
79,000
22
17,000
Average growth is expected. Most new jobs will
be
withtemporary help or personnel supply firms;
little growth
isexpected in State job service offices. Job opportunities
will bebest for college graduates.
Engineering, science, and data
337,000
32
106,000
Employment, which is expected to increase processing
managers faster than average, is closely related
to the
growth of theoccupations these workers supervise
and to
changes in theindustries in which they are found.
Underlying
much of thegrowth of managers in science and engineering
arecompetitive pressures and advancing technologies,
whichforce companies to update and improve products
morefrequently. Employment of data processing
managers
willincrease rapidly due to the expansion of the
computer
anddata processing services industry and the
increasedemployment of computer systems analysts.
Financial managers
701,000
25
174,000
Average employment growth is expected. The need
for
skilledfinancial management will increase due
to the demands
ofglobal trade, the proliferation of complex
financialinstruments, and changing laws and regulations;
however,many firms are reducing their ranks of
middle
managers inan effort to be more efficient, thus
preventing
dramaticemployment growth. Like other managerial
occupations, thenumber of applicants for financial
management jobs isexpected to exceed the number
of job
openings, resulting incompetition for jobs.
Funeral directors
27,000
18
4,700
Average employment growth is expected, as demand
forfuneral
services rises with the number of deaths.
Employmentopportunities are expected to be excellent
because
the numberof graduates in mortuary science is
likely to
continue to beless than the number of job openings
in the
field.
General managers and top
2,871,000
13
380,000
Slower than average employment executives growth
is expected
as companies restructure managerial hierarchies
to cut
costs. Projected employment growth varieswidely
by industry;
for example, employment in the servicesindustries
will rise
faster than average while that inmanufacturing
declines.
Competition will remain keen forthese top managerial
jobs.
Government chief executives
73,000
3
2,200
Little, if any, employment growth and legislators
is
expected because few, if any, new governments
are likely
toform and the number of chief executives and
legislators
inexisting governments rarely changes. Small increases
willoccur as growing communities become independent
and
electa chief executive and legislators. A few
new positions
willdevelop as cities and counties without managers
hire
themand as unpaid positions_which are not counted
asemployment_are converted to paid positions.
Generally,there is less competition in small jurisdictions
than in largejurisdictions.
Health services managers
302,000
45
135,000
Much faster than average growth is expected as
the
healthcare industry expands and diversifies. Most
new jobs
will bein hospitals, offices and clinics of physicians,
nursingfacilities, and home health care.
Hotel managers and assistants
99,000
23
23,000
Job growth is expected to be about as fast as
average
withgrowth in business and vacation travel and
foreign
tourism.People with college degrees in hotel or
restaurantmanagement will have the best opportunities.
Industrial production
203,000
2
4,800
Little change in managers employment is expected
as the
trend toward smallermanagement staffs and the
lack of growth
in the employmentof production workers limit demand.
Opportunities should bebest for MBA's with undergraduate
engineering degrees andcollege graduates with
degrees in
industrial engineering orbusiness administration.
Inspectors and compliance
155,000
27
41,000
Faster than average growth is officers, except
construction
expected due to growing public demand for a saferenvironment
and higher quality products. Employmentgrowth
in government
will stem from the expansion ofregulatory and
compliance
programs; in private industry,from increasing
self-
enforcement, particularly amongfranchise dealerships,
which
are growing rapidly.
Loan officers and counselors
172,000
40
68,000
Faster than average employment growth is expected
as
thepopulation and economy grow, increasing the
number
ofapplications for commercial, consumer, and mortgage
loans.Growth in the variety and complexity of
loans and
theimportance of loan officers to the success
of banks and
otherlending institutions should also assure rapid
employmentgrowth. College graduates and those
with banking
andlending experience should have the best job
prospects.
Management analysts
208,000
43
89,000
Much faster than average employment growth is
projected and
consultants because of the tendency for businesses
to rely
on outsideexperts for many functions previously
carried out
internally.Demand also will be driven by the need
for firms
to improveperformance, expand markets, incorporate
new
technologies,cope with government regulations,
and adapt to
a changinglabor force. Despite projected rapid
employment
growth,jobseekers will face keen competition.
Marketing, advertising, and
432,000
36
156,000
Faster than average growth is public relations
managers
expected due to increasingly intense domestic
and
globalcompetition. Many of these highly coveted
jobs will be
soughtby other managers and other experienced
people,
resulting insubstantial competition. College graduates
with
extensiveexperience, a high level of creativity,
and
strongcommunication skills should have the best
job
opportunities.
Personnel, training, and
474,000
32
150,000
Faster than average growth is expected labor relations
Greater resources will be devoted to job-specific
training
and managers programs in response to the growing
complexity
of manyjobs, the aging of the work force, and
technological
advancesthat can leave employees with obsolete
skills. In
addition,legislation and court rulings setting
standards in
occupationalsafety and health; equal employment
opportunity;
wages; andhealth, pension, family leave, and other
benefits
will spur jobgrowth. The job market is likely
to remain
competitive inview of the abundant supply of qualified
college graduatesand experienced workers.
Property and real estate
243,000
35
85,000
Faster than average employment managers is expected
to
result from increases in the number of officebuildings,
retail properties, and apartment and condominiumcomplexes
requiring management. Opportunities should bebest
for people
with college degrees in businessadministration
and related
fields.
Purchasers and buyers
624,000
8
49,000
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average
asdemand is restricted by the consolidation of
buyingdepartments resulting from mergers, changes
in the
waypurchases are made, and increases in the use
of
automatedsystems.
Restaurant and food
496,000
46
227,000
Job growth is expected to service managers be
much faster
than average. Population growth, risingpersonal
incomes, and
increased leisure time will continue toproduce
growth in the
number of eating and drinkingestablishments and,
therefore,
of managers. People withcollege degrees in restaurant
or
institutional food servicemanagement will have
the best
opportunities.
Retail managers
1,070,000( )
15
162,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
averageas an increase in the number of retail
establishments
is offsetby labor-saving innovations, such as
computerized
registersand inventory control systems. Competition
is
expected forjobs that offer the highest earnings
or best
workingconditions. Candidates with retail experience
will
have thebest opportunities.
Underwriters
100,000
24
24,000
Jobs should increase about as fast as average.
Demand
formore life, property, and casualty insurance
should
risebecause of population growth_especially of
people in
their40's and 50's, the age groups that tend to
be most
concernedabout liability and financial security.
PROFESSIONAL SPECIALTY OCCUPATIONS
Engineers
1,354,000( )
23
306,000
Employment is expected to grow as fast as average
because
ofrising investment in plant and equipment to
increaseproductivity and expand the output of
goods and
services. Jobopportunities in engineering have
been good for
a number ofyears, and this trend is expected to
continue.
However, manyjobs in engineering are related to
national
defense. Defenseexpenditures will decline, so
the job
outlook for engineerswill not be as strong as
in the 1980's,
when defenseexpenditures were increasing.
Aerospace engineers
66,000
14
9,200
Employment growth is expected to be slower than
average,due
to declining purchases of military aircraft and
only
slowgrowth of the commercial aircraft industry.
Keen
competitionis expected.
Chemical engineers
52,000
19
10,000
Employment growth is expected to be as fast as
average.Although employment in the chemical
manufacturingindustry is expected to grow very
little, the
relatively smallnumber of chemical engineering
graduates
should findfavorable job opportunities. The production
of
industrialchemicals, biotechnology, and materials
science
may providebetter opportunities than other segments
of the
chemicalmanufacturing industry.
Civil engineers
173,000
24
41,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
average,spurred by population growth and an expanding
economy.More civil engineers will be needed to
design and
constructhigher capacity transportation, water
supply, and
pollutioncontrol systems and large buildings;
the repair or
replacementof existing roads, bridges, and other
public
structures willalso stimulate demand.
Electrical and
370,000
24
90,000
Average growth is expected, with the electronics
engineers
fastest growth anticipated outside manufacturing.
Increaseddemand for computers and communications
equipment
isexpected to account for much of the projected
employmentgrowth. However. layoffs of electrical
engineers
could resultfrom cutbacks in defense spending.
Industrial engineers
19,000
17
20,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average
dueto industrial growth, the increased complexity
of
businessoperations, and the rising use of automation
in
factories andoffices. The function of industrial
engineers_to improveproducts and productivity_should
keep
their services indemand and job opportunities
favorable.
Mechanical engineers
227,000
20
46,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
average.Even in manufacturing, which is expected
to decline
overall,the employment of mechanical engineers
should
increasebecause industrial machinery and processes
are
becomingincreasingly complex. Although many
mechanicalengineering jobs are in defense-related
industries
andreductions will probably continue in these
industries,
rapidgrowth in other industries should make job
opportunitiesfavorable overall.
Metallurgical, ceramic, and
19,000
28
5,400
Employment is expected to increase materials engineers
faster than average. Research, testing, engineering,
andarchitectural services should provide significant
numbers
ofjob openings.
Mining engineers
3,600
3
( )
Little change in employment is expected. The small
numberof
new graduates, however, is expected to find favorable
jobopportunities.
Nuclear engineers
17,000
1
(3)
Although employment is expected to change
little,opportunities should be good because the
number of
peoplegraduating with degrees in nuclear engineering
is
likely to below and in rough balance with the
number of job
openings.
Petroleum engineers
14,000
-2
(3)
Employment is expected to decline unless oil and
gas
pricesrise enough to increase exploration in this
country,
which isunlikely. Even without job growth, opportunities
forpetroleum engineers should be good because
the number
ofdegrees granted in petroleum engineering is
low.
Architects and surveyors
Architects
96,000
26
25,000
Employment is expected to grow as fast as average
as
newconstruction spurs demand. Competition for
jobs will be
keen,however, particularly during recessions.
Architects
familiarwith computer aided design technology
may have
betteropportunities, especially when the job market
is
tight.
Landscape architects
19,000
26
5,000
Average employment growth is expected, in keeping
withanticipated growth in construction. Landscape
architects
willbe needed to design and develop land surrounding
newconstruction, convert open space into recreation
areas
andparks, and refurbish existing sites.
Surveyors
99,000
13
13,000
Jobs are expected to increase more slowly than
average.
Jobgrowth will not keep pace with construction
activity
becausenew technology makes workers more productive.
Growth
willfluctuate from year to year because construction
is
sensitive toswings in the overall economy. Opportunities
should be bestfor people with at least a bachelor's
degree.
Computer, mathematical, and operations research
occupations
Actuaries
15,000
29
4,300
Despite expected faster than average employment
growth,especially for consulting actuaries, the
number of
jobopenings will be low because of the small size
of
thisoccupation. Relatively high potential earnings
make
theoccupation attractive to many who have a
mathematicalaptitude, thereby increasing competition.
Computer scientists and systems analysts
666,000
111
737,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average as
organizations demand technologicaladvances to
maximize the
efficiency of their computersystems and increasingly
recognize the need to designcomputer networks
that will
facilitate the sharing ofinformation. Individuals
with
advanced degrees in computer science should enjoy
very
favorable job prospects. Those witha bachelor's
degree in
computer science, computerengineering, information
science,
or information systems alsoshould have good prospects
for
employment.
Mathematicians
16,000
8
1,200
Expected slowdowns in research and development
will resultin
slower than average employment growth. Job opportunitieswill
be best for those whose educational background
includesboth
mathematics and a related discipline, such as
computerprogramming, operations research, or engineering.
Operations research analysts
45,000
61
27,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
averagedue
to the increasing importance of quantitative analysis
indecisionmaking and the increasing availability
of
computingresources. Much of the expected growth
will be in
thetransportation, manufacturing, finance, and
servicesindustries. Job opportunities will be
best for those
who hold amaster's or Ph.D.
Statisticians
16,000
9
1,500
The number of jobs for statisticians is expected
to grow
moreslowly than average. Workers with a bachelor's
degree
instatistics and a strong background in
mathematics,engineering, or physical or computer
science
will have thebest prospects for finding jobs..
Life scientists
Agricultural scientists
29,000
14
4,200
Overall, average employment growth is expected
foragricultural scientists. Continued interest
in the
environmentand in improved food products and processing
techniques willspur demand for soil scientists
and food
technologists.Animal and plant scientists with
a background
in molecularbiology, microbiology, genetics, or
biotechnology also shouldhave good opportunities.
However,
budget cuts may limitfunding for basic research,
creating
keen competition forthese jobs.
Biological and medical
117,000
27
31,000
Efforts to clean up and
scientists
preserve the environment, use biological methods
to
developand produce goods, and expand health-related
research
willfuel demand for biological and medical scientists,
leading tofaster than average employment growth.
Nevertheless, budgettightening may slow funding
of
government research grants,creating competition
for
positions.
Foresters and conservation scientists
35,000
12
4,300
Slower than average employment growth is expected
for
foresters and conservationscientists, partly due
to
budgetary constraints in the Federalgovernment,
where
employment is concentrated.Opportunities will
be better in
private industry and State andlocal governments,
where
demand will increase in response toa growing emphasis
on
environmental protection andresponsible land management.
Physical scientists
Chemists
92,000
21
20,000
Average employment growth is expected. Demand
for
newconsumer goods such as better pharmaceuticals,
personal
careproducts, and specialty chemicals designed
to address
specificproblems will counterbalance the slower
growth
expected inother types of research and development.
Geologists and geophysicists
48,000
22
11,000
Average employment growth is expected. Althoughemployment
prospects are uncertain in the petroleumindustry,
demand for
these professionals in environmentalprotection
and
reclamation is expected to be strong.
Meteorologists
6,100
24
1,500
Average employment growth will result both from
hiring bythe
National Weather Service to improve short-term
andlocal-area
weather forecasts and from the growth of
privateenvironmental, weather, and consulting
firms.
Physicists and astronomers
21,000
-3
-700
Small employment declines will result from the
expectedreduction of civilian and defense-related
research.
Lawyers and judges
716,000
28
197,000
Jobs for lawyers are expected to increase faster
than
average in response to growth in population and
business
activity.Employment of judges is expected to increase
more
slowly than average as public concern about crime
is
tempered by tight government budgets. Keen competition
for
job openingsis expected for both occupations.
Social scientists and urban planners
258,000
37
95,000
Faster than average growth is expected due to
rising concern
over theenvironment, crime, communicable diseases,
mental
illness,and the growing elderly and homeless populations,
the increasingly competitive global economy, and
a wide
range ofother issues. Job prospects are best for
those with
advanceddegrees and are generally better in disciplines
which offermany opportunities in nonacademic settings.
Competitionmay ease for academic jobs due to an
expected
wave ofretirements among college and university
faculty.
Economists and marketing research analysts
51,000
25
13,000
Average growth is expected due to the increasingly
complex
and competitiveglobal economy and increased reliance
on
quantitativemethods of analyzing business trends,
forecasting sales, andplanning. Graduates with
related work
experience or anadvanced degree should have the
best job
opportunities.Training in quantitative techniques
and their
application toeconomic modeling, forecasting,
and marketing
researchprovide applicants with the most marketable
skills.
Psychologists
143,000
48
69,000
Much faster than average growth is expected for
severalreasons: Increased emphasis on mental health
maintenance inconjunction with the treatment of
physical
illness; publicconcern for the development of
human
resources, includingthe growing elderly population;
increased testing andcounseling of children; interest
in
rehabilitation of prisoners;and development of
programs to
combat substance abuse,crime, marital strife,
and other
problems plaguing society.Opportunities are best
for
candidates with a doctoral degreein applied specialties.
Graduates with a master's degree mayencounter
competition
for the limited number of jobs forwhich they qualify,
while
bachelor's degree holders canexpect very few opportunities
directly related to psychology.
Sociologists
( )
(4)
(4)
Job growth will stem from increasing demand for
research
insuch fields as demography, criminology, and
gerontology
andfrom the need to evaluate and administer social
and
welfareprograms. Sociologists well-trained in
quantitative
researchmethods and practical rather than theoretical
sociologyshould have the widest choice of jobs.
Ph.D.'s have
the bestopportunities for academic positions and
will find
thatnonacademic opportunities also are expanding.
People
with amaster's degree face keen competition for
academic
positionsbut will be able to enter sociological
practice.
Urban and regional planners
28,000
23
6,400
Average growth will stem from the importance of
planning
inseveral fields. Those with certification or
a master's
degreefrom an accredited planning program, or
a master's
degree incivil engineering or landscape architecture
coupled
withtraining in transportation or environmental
planning
have thebest job prospects. Graduates with an
accredited
bachelor'sdegree in planning have relatively good
job
prospects.
Social and recreation workers
Human services workers
189,000
136
256,000
Jobs are expected to increase much faster than
average due
tothe expansion of facilities and programs for
the elderly
anddisabled and the provision of more services
for families
incrisis. Opportunities for qualified people should
be
excellentdue to high job turnover, relatively
low pay, and
thedemanding nature of the work.
Social workers
484,000
40
191,000
Faster than average job growth is expected in
response to
theincreased needs of the elderly, mentally ill,
and
disabled aswell as individuals and families in
crisis. Some
of the needwill be met through greater use of
human services
workers toassist social workers. Competition for
social
worker jobs isexpected in some areas.
Recreation workers
204,000
38
78,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
inresponse to population growth, increased interest
in
healthand fitness, and rising demand for organized
recreationalactivities. Competition is expected
for full-
time careerpositions, but opportunities for seasonal
and
part-time workshould be good.
Religious workers
Protestant ministers
290,000
( )
(6)
Competition is expected to continue due to the
slow growth
of church membership and the large number of men
and women
attracted to the profession. Graduates of theological
schools should have the best opportunities.
Rabbis
3,9005
(6)
(6)
Job opportunities are expected to be generally
favorable in
thefour major branches of Judaism. Present unmet
needs
forrabbis, together with the many rabbis approaching
retirementage, should insure that the relatively
constant
numbers ofpeople completing rabbinical training
should have
good jobprospects.
Roman Catholic priests
53,0005
(6)
(6)
Opportunities are expected to continue to be very
favorabledue to a shortage of priests. The number
of men
becomingpriests in recent years has not been,
and will not
be, enoughto meet needs even if seminary enrollments
continue theirrecent slow increase, especially
in light of
the growingnumbers of priests reaching retirement
age.
Teachers, librarians, and counselors
Adult education teachers
540,000
32
172,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
as
thedemand for adult education programs continues
to rise.
Tokeep abreast of changes in their fields and
advances
intechnology, an increasing number of adults are
taking
coursesto advance their careers, upgrade their
skills, and
enrich theirlives. Opportunities will be best
in computer
technology,automotive mechanics, medical technology,
and
other fieldsthat offer attractive, and often higher
paying,
jobs outside ofteaching.
Archivists and curators
19,000
18
3,500
Average employment growth is expected. More archivists
willbe needed as institutions put more emphasis
on
establishingarchives and organizing records. Museums
and
botanical andzoological gardens, where curators
are
concentrated, areexpected to grow in response
to increased
interest in science,art, history, and technology.
However,
competition for jobs isexpected to be keen. Graduates
with
highly specializedtraining and practical work
experience
have the bestopportunities.
College and university faculty
812,000
26
214,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as average
as enrollmentin higher education increases. In
addition,
retirements shouldbegin increasing in the late
1990's,
resulting in improvedopportunities for college
faculty
positions and tenure. Fewerfaculty members should
have to
take part-time or short-termappointments. Job
prospects will
continue to be better in suchfields as business,
engineering, health science, computerscience,
physical
sciences, and mathematics than in otherspecialties,
largely
because very attractive nonacademic jobswill be
available
for many potential faculty members in thesefields.
Counselors
154,000
32
50,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
inresponse to increasing demand for school,
rehabilitation,mental health, and employment counselors.
Opportunitiesshould increase significantly by
the end of the
decade as alarge number of counselors reach retirement
age.
Librarians
141,000
12
17,000
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average,continuing the trend of the 1980's. Budgetary
constraints inschool, public, and college libraries
and the
increasing use ofcomputerized information storage
and
retrieval systems willdampen demand. Opportunities
will be
best in nontraditionalsettings_information brokers,
private
corporations, andconsulting firms. Willingness
to relocate
will greatly enhancejob prospects.
School teachers_kinder- garten, elementary, and
secondary
3,255,000
34
1,113,000
Faster than average employment growth is expected;
however,
projected growth varies among individual teaching
occupations.Employment of special education teachers
is
expected toincrease much faster than average due
to
legislationemphasizing training and employment
for
individuals withdisabilities; technological advances
resulting in moresurvivors of accidents and illnesses;
and
growing publicinterest in individuals with special
needs.
Employment ofsecondary school teachers is expected
to grow
faster thanaverage, while average employment growth
is
projected forkindergarten and elementary school
teachers,
reflectingpopulation trends and corresponding
student
enrollment. Jobprospects generally are better
in cities and
rural areas than insuburbs. Mathematics, science,
and
special education teachersremain in short supply
in many
locales.
Health diagnosing occupations
Chiropractors
46,000
36
16,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
becauseof
rapid growth in the older population, with its
increasedlikelihood of physiological problems.
Greater
publicawareness of the profession also will encourage
growth.Replacement needs are low because chiropractors
generallyremain in the profession until they retire.
Dentists
183,000
5
9,500
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
averagedespite growing demand. Dentists will absorb
the
increase indemand for services by working more
hours and
hiring moredental hygienists and dental assistants
to handle
routineservices. Demand for dental care should
grow
substantially:The baby-boom generation will seek
more care
as it ages; theelderly will require more care
than their
predecessors becausethey are more likely to retain
their
teeth; and the youngergeneration will need preventive
check-
ups.
Optometrists
31,000
16
4,800
Employment is expected to grow as fast as average
in order
tomeet the needs of a population that is larger,
older, and
moreaware of the need for proper eye care. Replacement
needs
arelow because optometrists generally remain in
the
professionuntil they retire.
Physicians
556,000
35
195,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
due to
agrowing and aging population and technologicalimprovements
that encourage expansion of the health careindustry.
Job
prospects are good for primary, geriatric, andpreventive
care specialists. Some shortages have beenreported
in
general surgery and psychiatry and in some ruraland
low
income areas. Replacement needs are low becausephysicians
generally remain in the profession until they
retire.
Podiatrists
15,000
37
5,500
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
due tothe
rising demand for podiatric services, especially
by
olderpeople. Establishing a new podiatric practice
will be
toughestin areas surrounding the seven colleges
of podiatric
medicinesince podiatrists are concentrated in
these
locations.Replacement needs are low because podiatrists
generallyremain in the profession until they retire.
Veterinarians
44,000
33
14,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
due to
anincrease in the number of pets and greater willingness
of
petowners to pay for more intensive care. The
outlook will
beparticularly good for veterinarians with specialty
training intoxicology, laboratory animal medicine,
and
pathology.
Health assessment and treating occupations
Dietitians and nutritionists
50,000
26
13,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
averagebecause of increasing emphasis on nutrition
in
nursinghomes, hospitals, physicians' offices,
and social
serviceprograms.
Occupational therapists
40,000
60
24,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
averagedue
to strong growth in rehabilitative services. Medicaladvances
now make it possible for more patients with criticalproblems
to survive and need therapy. Also, as the baby-
boomgeneration moves into middle age, the incidence
of
heartattack and stroke will increase. The rapidly
growingpopulation 75 years of age and above and
disabled
childrenentering special education programs will
spur
furtherdemand.
Pharmacists
163,000
29
47,000
Spurred by the pharmaceutical needs of a larger
and
olderpopulation and greater use of medication,
employment
isexpected to grow faster than average.
Physical therapists
90,000
88
79,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average.Growth will occur as new technologies
save more
traumavictims and permit more disabled people
to be treated,
whothen will need therapy. Demand also will come
from an
agingpopulation that is more likely to encounter
heart
attacks,strokes, and other debilitating conditions.
Younger
peoplewill also need therapy as medical advances
save the
lives ofmore newborns with birth defects.
Physician assistants
58,000
34
20,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
due
toexpansion of the health services industry and
increasedemphasis on cost containment and primary
care.
Jobprospects will be excellent, especially in
rural and low
incomeareas that have difficulty attracting physicians.
Recreational therapists
30,000
40
12,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average,
becauseof expansion in long-term care, physical
and
psychiatricrehabilitation, and services for the
disabled.
The growingnumber of older people is expected
to spur job
growth foractivity directors in nursing homes,
retirement
communities,adult day care programs, and social
service
agencies.Continued growth is expected in community
residentialfacilities as well as in day care programs
for
people withdisabilities. Job prospects are expected
to be
best for thosewith clinical experience.
Registered nurses
1,835,000
42
765,000
Much faster than average growth is expected due
to
overallgrowth in health care and medical technology.
Job
prospectswill be good, especially as emphasis
on primary
care grows.Many job openings will also result
from the need
to replaceexperienced nurses who leave this large
occupation.
Respiratory therapists
74,000
48
36,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
averagebecause of the substantial growth in the
middle-aged
andelderly population. An older population is
more likely
tosuffer from cardiopulmonary diseases such as
pneumonia,chronic bronchitis, emphysema, and heart
disease.
Rapidgrowth in the number of patients with AIDS
also will
boostdemand since lung disease often accompanies
AIDS.
Becausemedical advances will allow more premature
infants
tosurvive, job opportunities are expected to be
highly
favorablefor those with neonatal care skills.
Speech-language pathologists and audiologists
73,000
51
37,000
Much faster than average overall growth is expected
because
the increasednumber of older people and the entrance
of the
baby-boomersinto an age bracket when the possibility
of
stroke-inducedhearing and speech loss increases.
Increased
emphasis onearly detection and prevention will
also spur
growth.
Communications occupations
Public relations specialists
98,000
26
26,000
Average growth will stem from the recognition
byorganizations of all sizes of the need for good
public
relationsin an increasingly competitive business
environment. Keencompetition for public relations
jobs will
likely continueamong recent college graduates
with a degree
incommunications as the number of applicants is
expected
toexceed the number of job openings.
Radio and television announcers and newscasters
56,000
25
14,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average as
new radio andtelevision stations are licensed
and the number
of cabletelevision systems continues to grow.
Competition
will bevery keen because the broadcasting field
attracts
many morejobseekers than there are jobs. Radio
stations are
moreinclined than are television stations to hire
beginners.
Reporters and correspondents
58,000
26
15,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average.Competition on large metropolitan newspapers
and
broadcaststations and on national magazines will
continue to
be keen.Small town and suburban newspapers will
continue to
offerbetter opportunities for beginners. Talented
writers
who canhandle highly specialized scientific or
technical
subjects havean advantage.
Writers and editors
283,000
23
66,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
average.Employment of salaried writers and editors
by
newspapers,periodicals, book publishers, nonprofit
organizations, andadvertising and public relations
agencies
is expected toincrease with growing demand for
their
publications. Demandfor technical writers is expected
to
increase because of thecontinuing expansion of
scientific
and technical information.
Visual arts occupations
Designers
302,000
19
57,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average.Designers in most fields can expect to
face
competitionthroughout their careers as a result
of the
abundant supply oftalented, well-educated individuals
attracted to thisoccupation. Job opportunities
should be
best in floral designdue to its relatively low
pay and
limited advancementopportunities. Opportunities
also should
be good for qualifiedpeople in some specialized
fields, such
as furniture design.
Photographers and camera and newscasters
118,000
25
29,000
Average employment growth will stem from increasing
use of
visual images in education,communication, entertainment,
marketing, and research anddevelopment and as
businesses
make greater use of videos fortraining films,
business
meetings, sales campaigns, andpublic relations
work.
However, competition will be keen forwhat is generally
regarded as an exciting field.
Visual artists
273,000
23
63,000
Average employment growth is expected for both
graphicdesigners and fine artists. Despite demands
by
advertisingagencies, publishing firms, and other
businesses
for creativeand ingenious designs, graphic designers
can
expectcompetition for employment. Competition
for jobs also
willcontinue to be keen among fine artists, who
often create
art tosatisfy their need for self-expression,
and display
their worksin museums, art galleries, and homes.
Performing arts occupations
Actors, directors, and producers
129,000
54
69,000
Much faster than average job growth is expected.
Keen
competition is expected for jobsbecause large
numbers of
people are attracted to these careers,which do
not require
formal preparation. Only a relativelyfew people
will find
regular employment.
Dancers and choreographers
18,000
25
4,600
Jobs are expected to increase about as fast as
average due
tothe public's continued interest in dance. Very
keencompetition is expected for job openings,
and only the
mosttalented will find regular employment.
Musicians
236,000
25
59,000
Jobs are expected to grow about as fast as average
due to
the continued demand for live and recorded
musicalentertainment. Competition for jobs will
be keen, and
even many talented individuals will not be able
to make a
living solely as musicians. Opportunities will
be best for
people with an ability to play several instruments
and a
variety of types of music.
TECHNICIANS AND RELATED SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS
Health technologists and technicians
Cardiovascular technologists and technicians
31,000
9
2,600
Overall employment is expected to grow more slowly
than
average, but techniciansand technologists will
experience
different patterns ofemployment change. Employment
of EKG
technicians isexpected to decline as hospitals
train nurses
and otherpersonnel to perform basic EKG procedures.
Employment ofcardiology technologists is expected
to grow
faster thanaverage as the population ages because
older
people have ahigher incidence of heart problems.
Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians
268,000
26
71,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average,
with demandstimulated by the growth of the older
population
and itsaccompanying medical problems. Technological
advanceswill have opposite effects on employment:
New,
morepowerful tests encourage more testing, but
automation
andsimpler tests make each worker more productive.
The
fastestgrowth is expected in independent medical
laboratories.Rapid growth also is expected in
the offices
and clinics ofphysicians. Hospitals will experience
only
slow growth asthey continue to send laboratories
a greater
share of theirtesting.
Dental hygienists
108,000
43
46,000
Employment should grow much faster than average
becauseof
increased demand for dental care. Demand will
arise
frompopulation growth, greater retention of natural
teeth
bymiddle-aged and elderly people, and rising incomes.
Also,dentists are likely to hire more hygienists
as their
workloadsincrease.
Dispensing opticians
63,000
36
22,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
inresponse to rising demand for corrective lenses
as
thepopulation grows and ages. Replacement needs
will
besignificant. This occupation emplys many young
people;
and,like many other occupations in retail trade,
many
peopletransfer to other fields.
EEG technologists
6,300
54
3,400
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average,reflecting the increased number of neurodiagnostic
testsperformed. More testing will occur as new
tests
andprocedures are developed and as the aging
populationrequires more medical care.
Emergency medical and technicians
114,000
36
41,000
Employment technicians is expected to grow faster
than
average because of theincreasing number of older
people, who
are more likely toneed emergency services. Most
job openings
will occurbecause of this occupation's high turnover.
Licensed practical nurses
659,000
40
261,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
inresponse to general demand and the long-term-care
needs of
arapidly growing elderly population. Job prospects
shouldremain excellent unless the number of people
completingLPN training increases substantially.
Medical record technicians
76,000
61
47,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average.Demand will arise from rapid growth in
the number
ofmedical tests, treatments, and procedures and
the
increasingscrutiny of medical records by third-party
payers,
courts, andconsumers.
Nuclear medicine technologists
12,000
50
6,100
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average.
Substantialgrowth in the number of middle-aged
and older
people willspur demand for nuclear medicine tests.
Technologicalinnovations should increase the uses
of nuclear
medicine,further strengthening demand.
Radiologic technologists
162,000
63
102,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average.New
generations of diagnostic imaging equipment shouldincrease
demand. Also, more treatment of cancer isanticipated
due to
the aging of the population and theimproved ability
to
detect malignancies.
Surgical technologists
44,000
42
19,000
Much faster than average growth is expected as
a
growingpopulation and technological advances increase
the
number ofsurgical procedures performed. Growth
will be
fastest inclinics and offices of physicians due
to increased
outpatientsurgery; however, most jobs will be
in hospitals.
Technicians except health
Aircraft pilots
85,000
35
30,000
Despite faster than average employment growth,
pilots
shouldface considerable competition for jobs because
the
glamour,prestige, and high pay associated with
the
occupation attractmany applicants. Pilots who
have logged
the greatest numberof flying hours using the most
sophisticated equipment andthose with the most
FAA licenses
generally have the bestprospects.
Air traffic controllers
23,000
10
2,300
Employment growth is expected to be slower than
average
asproductivity gains stemming from laborsaving
air
trafficcontrol equipment offset some of the demand
generated
bymore aircraft flying. Competition for jobs is
expected
toremain keen because the occupation's relatively
high pay
andliberal retirement plan attract many applicants.
Broadcast technicians
35,000
4
1,400
Employment in radio and television broadcasting
is
expectedto grow more slowly than average because
of
laborsavingtechnologies. Employment in the motion
picture
industry willgrow faster than average as more
movies are
made. Jobprospects are expected to remain competitive
because of thelarge number of people attracted
to this
relatively small field.
Computer programmers
555,000
30
169,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
asorganizations seek new applications for computers
andimprovement to the software already in use.
Employment
isnot expected to grow as rapidly as in the past,
however,because new software and techniques have
simplified
oreliminated some programming tasks. Job opportunities
shouldbe particularly plentiful in data processing
services
firms,software houses, and computer consulting
businesses.
Drafters
314,000
11
35,000
Despite increasing demands by industry for drafting
services,productivity gains due to advances in
computer-
aided draftingtechnology are expected to result
in slower
than averageemployment growth.
Engineering technicians
695,000
19
132,000
Average employment growth is expected. Overall,
the drive
toimprove manufacturing facilities and product
designs
willprovide good employment opportunities; however,
the
outlookvaries with the area of specialization
and
industry;technicians whose jobs are defense related
may
experiencefewer opportunities because of cutbacks.
Library technicians
71,000
25
18,000
Average employment growth will be spurred by
increasingautomation. Computerized information
systems
havesimplified certain tasks, such as descriptive
cataloging, whichcan now be handled by technicians
instead
of librarians.However, budgetary constraints may
dampen
employmentgrowth in school, public, and college
and
university libraries.Willingness to relocate enhances
one's
job prospects.
Paralegals
95,000
86
81,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average
aslaw firms and other employers of legal workers
restructuretasks to make greater use of paralegals.
However,
keencompetition for jobs should continue as the
large number
ofpeople graduating from paralegal training programs
exceedsjob growth.
Science technicians
244,000
25
61,000
Average employment growth is expected because
of thegrowth
of scientific research and development and theproduction
of
technical products. Job opportunities will bebest
for
individuals who have training or experience on
theequipment
currently in use in industrial and governmentlaboratories.
MARKETING AND SALES OCCUPATIONS
Cashiers
2,747,000
24
669,900
Average growth is expected, spurred by a growingpopulation's
expanding demand for goods and services. As inthe
past,
replacement needs will create a significant numberof
job
openings because the occupation is large and turnoveris
much
higher than average.
Counter and rental clerks
242,000
36
88,000
Faster than average employment growth is expected
due
torising demand for laundry and dry cleaning,
automobilerental, amusement and recreation, and
equipment
rental andleasing services. Part-time employment
opportunities shouldbe especially plentiful.
Insurance agents and brokers
415,000
15
62,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
averageas increasing productivity moderates growth
in
response tothe rising volume of sales of insurance
and other
financialproducts. Opportunities will be best
for ambitious
people whoenjoy sales work and develop expertise
in a wide
range ofinsurance and financial services. Many
beginners
abandonthis highly competitive business because
they are
unable toestablish a sufficiently large clientele.
Manufacturers' and wholesale sales representatives
1,613,000
5
78,000
Employment growth is expected to be slower than
average as
more firms rely ontechnology such as electronic
data
interchange, point of saleinventory systems, and
expert
system software and as morelarge companies begin
to
negotiate directly with suppliers,bypassing sales
representatives entirely.
Real estate agents, brokers, and appraisers
397,000
16
63,000
Average employment growth is expected as a result
of the
growing volume of sales ofresidential and commercial
property. Because turnover ishigh, real estate
sales
positions should be relatively easy toobtain.
Retail sales workers
4,086,000
21
877,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
averagedue to anticipated growth in retail trade.
As in the
past,replacement needs will generate an exceptionally
largenumber of sales jobs because the occupation
is large
andturnover is much higher than average.
Securities and financial services sales representatives
200,000
33
65,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
as
economic growth,rising personal incomes, and greater
inherited wealth increase the funds available
for investment
and as banks and otherfinancial institutions offer
an
increasing array of financialservices. Due to
the highly
competitive nature of securitiessales work, many
beginners
leave the field because they areunable to establish
a
sufficient clientele. Job prospects shouldbe best
for mature
individuals with successful salesexperience.
Services sales representatives
488,000
38
185,000
Faster than average growth is expected in response
to
thegrowth of the services industries. However,
employment
willnot keep pace with industry growth due to
downsizing and
theuse of technologies, such as voice mail, cellular
telephones,and laptop computers, that increase
productivity.
Prospectiveservices sales representatives with
a college
background or aproven sales record should have
the best job
opportunities.
Travel agents
115,000
66
76,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
averagedue
to a sharp increase in business and vacation travel.
ADMINISTRATIVE SUPPORT OCCUPATIONS INCLUDING CLERICAL
Adjusters, investigators, and collectors
1,185,000
31
367,000
Job growth is expected to be about as fast as
average as a
result of increases in thepopulation, the economy,
and the
volume of insurance sales.Bill and account collectors
and
insurance adjusters andexaminers will grow the
most rapidly.
Bank tellers
525,000
-4
-24,000
Employment is projected to decline. Overexpansion
andcompetition from large nonbank corporations
will result
inclosings, mergers, and consolidations in the
banking
industry,where employment of tellers is highly
concentrated.
Further,teller employment could be adversely affected
by
newtechnologies if they are widely adopted by
banks.Nevertheless, qualified applicants should
have good
prospectsbecause the number of job openings is
large.
Clerical supervisors and managers
1,267,000
24
301,000
Employment is expected to increase as fast as
average. These
workers will not be affectedas dramatically by
office
automation as other administrativesupport workers,
although
automation may limit growth insome areas. Job
openings will
be numerous due toreplacement needs.
Computer and peripheral equipment operators
296,000
-41
-122,000
Employment is expected to decline sharply as data
centers
become increasinglyautomated and as more computing
is done
with personalcomputers.
Credit clerks and authorizers
218,000
24
53,000
Average employment growth is expected as the number
ofreal
estate, retail sales, and other transactions requiring
creditincreases.
General office clerks
2,688,000
24
654,000
Average employment growth is anticipated as more
smallbusinesses place a single office worker in
charge of
allclerical duties. Opportunities should be quite
favorablebecause high turnover in this very large
occupation
producesmany job openings.
Information clerks
1,333,000
32
429,000
Faster than average growth is expected due to
economicgrowth
and general business expansion. Replacement needswill
create
large numbers of job openings. Many opportunitiesfor
part-
time work will be available.
Hotel and motel desk clerks
122,000
40
50,000
Faster than average growth is expected due to
the
expansionof the number of hotels, motels, and
other
lodgingestablishments. Job opportunities should
be
relatively goodbecause turnover is very high.
Opportunities
for part-timework should continue to be plentiful.
Interviewing and new accounts clerks
175,000
19
34,000
Overall employment is expected to increase about
as fast as
average. Employment ofinterviewing clerks is expected
to
grow faster than average inthe health services
industry and
much faster than average inpersonnel supply services
as more
firms contract for theservices of these clerks.
New accounts
clerks can anticipateslower than average employment
growth,
reflecting slowgrowth among commercial banks and
savings and
loaninstitutions.
Receptionists
904,000
34
305,000
Faster than average growth is expected due to
strong
growthin the services sector of the economy. Job
opportunitiesshould be plentiful due to high turnover.
Because many receptionists also perform secretarial
duties,
good typing andcomputer skills, coupled with strong
interpersonal and communications skills, enhance
one's job
prospects.
Reservation and transportation
131,000
30
39,000
Faster than average ticket agents and travel clerks
growth is expected due to expansion of both business
and
pleasure travel. Most applicants are likely to
encounter
considerable competition because the supply of
qualified
applicants far outstrips demand. Airline jobs,
in
particular, attract many applicants because of
the travel
benefits and glamour associated with the industry.
Mail clerks and messengers
271,000
10
26,000
Jobs are expected to increase more slowly than
average as
the increasing automation of mail handling offsets
somewhat
the growing volume of internal mail, parcels,
and other
written information that must be handled and delivered.
High
turnover should result in plentiful job openings.
Material recording, scheduling,
3,558,000
13
455,000
Overall
dispatching and distributing occupations
employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average.The
volume of business transactions will increase
as theeconomy
grows, but automation will enable workers to bemore
productive, holding down employment growthsomewhat.
Job
prospects for individual occupations vary.
Dispatchers
222,000
21
46,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average
dueto the growing need for the various services
dispatchersprovide.
Stock clerks
1,969,000
10
187,000
Even though employment is expected to grow more
slowlythan
average, job prospects should be favorable. Thisoccupation
is very large, and many job openings will occureach
year to
replace workers who transfer to other jobs orleave
the labor
force. Growing use of computers for inventorycontrol
and
automated equipment are expected to hold downdemand,
especially in manufacturing and in wholesale
trade,industries whose operations are most easily
automated.
Traffic, shipping, and receiving clerks
824,000
18
147,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as average.
Employment growth will beaffected by automation,
as all but
the smallest firms move tohold down labor costs
by using
computers to store andretrieve shipping and receiving
records. However, certainfunctions cannot be automated.
Postal clerks and mail carriers
361,000
( )
1,600
Little change is expected in overall employment.
Employment
of postal clerks is expected to decline due to
the
implementation of productivity-increasing
automatedequipment. Postal mail carrier employment
is
expected tochange little, the result of the conflicting
factors of increasedmail volume and the growing
use of
automated sortingequipment. Competition for jobs
will be
keen as the numberof applicants continues to far
exceed the
number of jobopenings.
Record clerks
3,573,000
6
204,000
Slower than average employment growth is expected
asautomation makes these workers more productive.
However,opportunities will be plentiful for full-time,
part-
time, and seasonal employment due to above average
turnover
in thislarge occupation.
Billing clerks
409,000
3
12,000
Little change in employment is expected as computers
areincreasingly used to manage account information
and as
moreadvanced equipment replaces billing machines.
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks
2,112,000
3
73,000
Little change in employment is expected. Although
a growing
economy willresult in more financial transactions,
continuing automationwill increase productivity
and limit
employment growth.However, employment opportunities
should
be plentiful dueto the size of the occupation
and relatively
high turnover.
Brokerage clerks and statement clerks
88,000
7
5,900
Slower than average employment growth is expected
as further
automation andchanges in business practices reduce
demand
for theseworkers.
File clerks
257,000
19
48,000
Average employment growth is expected as
recordkeepingrequirements continue to rise. Demand
will be
strongest inthe rapidly growing health sector.
Job
opportunities should beplentiful due to high turnover.
Library assistants and bookmobile drivers
114,000
18
20,000
Average employment growth is expected due to growth
in local
government and schools.Job prospects should be
favorable,
especially for part-timework.
Order clerks
300,000
4
13,000
Little change in employment is expected as office
automationcontinues to increase the productivity
of these
workers.However, job opportunities should be plentiful,
especially foroutside order clerks who deal directly
with
the public.
Payroll and timekeeping clerks
165,000
( )
(8)
Employment is expected to change little as continuing
automation of payroll andtimekeeping make these
workers more
productive.
Personnel clerks
128,000
25
32,000
Average employment growth is expected. Despite
anincreasing
workload, rising productivity through automationwill
moderate demand.
Secretaries
3,324,000
12
386,000
Overall employment is expected to grow more slowly
thanaverage, in spite of projected rapid growth
for legal
andmedical secretaries. Employment gains resulting
from
anincrease in the amount of office work and the
assumption
ofnew responsibilities by secretaries will be
tempered
byproductivity gains made possible by automation.
Job
prospectsshould continue to be excellent, however,
for well
qualifiedsecretaries.
Stenographers and court reporters
115,000
-2
-1,700
Employment is expected to decline as decreases
in
stenographer jobs more than offsetgrowth in transcriptionist
and court reporter jobs. Widespreaduse of dictation
machines
should continue to greatly reducethe need for
stenographers,
but medical transcriptionist jobsshould increase
as health
services grows. Growing use ofvideo recordings
of court
proceedings should dampen growthof court reporters.
Teacher aides
885,000
43
381,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average
inresponse to the rising number of special education
classes,restructuring of schools, and increasing
number of
studentswho speak English as a second language.
Telephone operators
314,000
-28
-89,000
Employment is expected to decline due to automaticswitching
systems, voice message systems, and voicerecognition
technology.
Typists, word processors, and data entry keyers
1,238,000
-4
-46,000
Employment is expected to decline, primarily due
to new
technologies that allow moredata to be collected
at the
point of its origin or transmittedelectronically.
Job
prospects will be best for those with abroad knowledge
of
office technology.
SERVICE OCCUPATIONS
Protective service occupations
Correction officers
282,000
70
197,000
Employment is expected to increase much faster
than
averageas correctional facilities expand and additional
officers arehired to supervise and counsel a growing
number
of inmates.The large number of job openings from
both rapid
growth andreplacement needs will ensure highly
favorable
employmentprospects.
Firefighting occupations
305,000
16
50,000
Average employment growth is expected as the
Nation'spopulation grows and fire protection needs
increase.
Keencompetition is expected in most areas; the
best
opportunitiesare likely to be found in smaller
communities
with expandingpopulations.
Guards
803,000
51
408,000
Much faster than average employment growth is
expected dueto
increasing concern about crime, vandalism, and
terrorism
.Job opportunities should be plentiful, although
somecompetition is expected for in-house guard
jobs,
whichgenerally have higher salaries, more benefits,
better
jobsecurity, and greater potential for advancement.
Opportunitieswill be best for those who work for
contract
security agencies.
Police, detectives, and special agents
700,000
13
92,000
Employment is expected to increase more slowly
than average.
Job growth resulting fromincreases in the population
and the
need for police protectionwill be restrained by
tight
government budgets. Keencompetition is likely
for most jobs.
Food and beverage preparation and service occupations
Chefs, cooks, and other kitchen workers
3,092,000
38
1,190,000
Job growth is expected to be faster than average
as the
population and economy bothgrow and as fewer meals
are
prepared at home. High turnovershould result in
plentiful
job openings.
Food and beverage service workers
4,365,000
26
1,124,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average in
response to growth in the population and economy.
Jobopenings should continue to be plentiful due
to high
turnover.
Health service occupations
Dental assistants
183,000
39
72,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than
average.Population growth, higher incomes, and
greater
retention ofnatural teeth by middle-aged and older
people
will fueldemand for dental services. Also, dentists
are
expected to hiremore assistants to perform routine
tasks.
Medical assistants
181,000
71
128,000
Much faster than average growth is anticipated
due
toexpansion of the health services industry. In
view of the
highturnover in the occupation and the preference
of
manyphysicians for trained personnel, job prospects
should
beexcellent for medical assistants with formal
training
orexperience.
Nursing aides and psychiatric aides
1,389,000
44
616,000
Overall employment is projected to grow much faster
than
average. Employment ofnursing aides will also
grow much
faster than average as aresult of the expansion
of nursing
and personal care facilities.Employment of psychiatric
aides
is expected to grow fasterthan average to meet
the needs of
very old people and thosesuffering from acute
psychiatric
and substance abuseproblems. Replacement needs
will be high
because ofrelatively high turnover in this occupation.
Job
prospects areexpected to be very good.
Personal service and cleaning occupations
Animal caretakers, except farm
103,000
40
41,000
Employment is expected to grow faster than average
due to a
significant increase in thenumber of dogs and
cats who need
care. The best prospectsshould be for graduates
of training
programs in veterinarytechnology.
Barbers and cosmetologists
746,000
32
239,000
Population growth and rising incomes will produce
fasterthan
average employment growth. Most of this growth
will bein
cosmetology, reflecting shifting consumer preferencestoward
personalized styling in full-service salons. Jobprospects
will be best for those specializing in nail and
skincare.
Part-time employment will continue to account
for
asignificant share of the job growth.
Flight attendants
93,000
51
47,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average
asthe number of airline passengers continues to
increase.Competition for jobs is expected to remain
very
keen.Applicants with at least 2 years of college
and
experience indealing with the public have the
best
prospects.
Gardeners and groundskeepers
884,000
35
311,000
Faster than averageemployment growth is expected
in response
to increasingdemand for gardening and landscaping
services.
Employmentopportunities should be plentiful.
Homemaker-home health aides
475,000
136
645,000
A substantial increase in the elderly population,
greater
efforts to care for thechronically ill at home,
and
development of in-home medicaltechnologies should
spur much
faster than average growth.Job opportunities are
excellent.
Janitors and cleaners and cleaning supervisors
3,018,000
20
600,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average as
the number of officebuildings, apartment houses,
schools,
hospitals, and otherbuildings increases. The occupation
is
easy to enter, turnoveris high, and part-time
and temporary
jobs are plentiful.
Preschool workers
941,000
65
611,000
Employment is projected to increase much faster
thanaverage,
reflecting a shift in the kind of child-carearrangements
parents choose, and a rise in labor forceparticipation
among
women ages 20-44. Job openings shouldbe plentiful
because
many preschool workers leave theoccupation each
year for
other, often better paying, jobs,family responsibilities,
or
other reasons. Qualified peopleshould have little
trouble
finding and keeping a job.
Private household workers
869,000
-33
-286,000
Employment is expected to decline. The severely
limitedsupply of people willing to work in this
field has
given rise tochild care and household cleaning
service
firms, whichadversely affects employment in this
occupation.Nevertheless, job opportunities should
be
excellent.
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY, FISHING, AND RELATED OCCUPATIONS
Farm operators and managers
1,218,000
-17
-204,000
Employment is expected to decline as farms become
larger,
more productive, and fewerin number. Nevertheless,
replacement needs will result inmany job openings.
Fishers, hunters, and trappers
60,000
5
3,000
Slower than average growth is expected due to
stockdepletion. Many operations currently are
at or
beyondmaximum sustainable yield, limiting potential
foroccupational growth. Employment growth of fishers
will
alsobe restrained by improvements in fishing vessels
and
gear.
Forestry and logging occupations
131,000
2
3,200
Little change in overal employment is expected.
Despite an
increase in demand forlumber and wood products,
improvements
in loggingequipment will cause employment of timber
and
loggingworkers to decline. Employment of forestry
and
conservationworkers is expected to increase moderately
as
environmentalconcerns help spur demand. However,
these jobs
are soughtby many people, and applicants are expected
to
facecompetition.
MECHANICS, INSTALLERS, AND REPAIRERS
Aircraft mechanics and engine specialists
131,000
13
17,000
Slower than average employment growth is expected
as
productivity gainsresulting from greater use of
automated
inventory control andmodular systems speed repairs
and parts
replacement. Jobprospects are likely to be best
in general
aviation.
Automotive body repairers
202,000
30
61,000
Employment is expected to increase faster than
average due
toa rise in the number of motor vehicles and the
popularity
oflighter weight cars, which are more easily damaged
incollisions and more difficult to repair. Opportunities
shouldbe best for people with formal training
in automotive
bodyrepair or mechanics.
Automotive mechanics
739,000
23
168,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
averageas the need to service and repair an increasing
number ofmotor vehicles is offset by improvements
in their
reliability.Most new jobs will be in automotive
repair shops
andautomobile dealerships as fewer gasoline service
stationsprovide repair services. Opportunities
should be
best forpeople who complete formal automotive
mechanic
trainingprograms.
Diesel mechanics
263,000
24
64,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
averageas freight transportation by truck increases.
Opportunitiesshould be best for people who complete
formal
dieselmechanic training programs.
Electronic equipment repairers
398,000
-4
-15,000
Overall employment is expected to decline due
to
improvements in product reliabilityand ease of
service; in
addition, lower prices will causeconsumers to
purchase new
equipment rather than have olditems repaired.
Commercial and industrial electronic equipment
repairers
68,000
7
5,000
Overall employment is expected to grow more slowly
than
average. Employment innondefense industries is
expected to
grow about as fast asaverage as firms install
more
electronic equipment. Becauseof cuts in the defense
budget,
employment is expected todecline significantly
in the
Federal Government.
Communications equipment repairers
108,000
-38
-41,000
Employment is expected to decline sharply. Decreased
labor
requirements due toimproved technology have already
caused
layoffs.
Computer and office machine repairers
143,000
30
43,000
Overall employment is expected to grow faster
than average.
Employment ofcomputer repairers is expected to
grow much
faster thanaverage as the amount of computer equipment
increases.Employment of other office machine repairers
is
expected togrow more slowly than average due to
slow growth
in theamount of that equipment.
Electronic home entertainment equipment repairers
39,000
-5
-2,100
Employment is expected to decline. Improvements
in
reliability and ease ofservice should reduce service
requirements, even though moreequipment is expected
to be in
use. Nevertheless,opportunities should be good
because many
repairers transferto higher paying jobs that also
require
knowledge ofelectronics.
Telephone installers and repairers
40,000
-50
-20,000
Employment is expected to decline significantly
due to
technological improvements, suchas prewired jacks
and
modular telephones. Also, fewerphones will be
worth
repairing as prices continue to decline.
Elevator installers and repairers
22,000
18
3,900
Average growth will occur as the construction
of buildings
with elevators and escalatorsincreases and as
the stock of
equipment needing maintenancegrows. In addition,
demand will
be spurred by the need tomodernize older equipment.
Job
prospects will be best forpeople with postsecondary
training
in electronics.
Farm equipment mechanics
47,000
13
6,000
Employment is expected to increase more slowly
thanaverage.
Farmland consolidation and more efficient farmpractices
will
hold down demand, but the tendency of farmersto
make fewer
of their own repairs will increase it.Opportunities
should
be best for people who complete formaltraining
in farm
equipment repair or diesel mechanics.
General maintenance mechanics
1,145,000
28
319,000
Faster than average growth is expected as the
number of
office and apartmentbuildings, stores, schools,
hospitals,
hotels, and factoriesincreases. Although construction
of
these facilities is expectedto slow down, many
opportunities
will arise because of thehigh turnover in this
large
occupation.
Heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration technicians
212,000
29
62,000
Employment is expected to increase faster than
average.
Demand for newresidential, commercial, and industrial
climate controlsystems, as well as the need to
maintain
existing systems,should create very favorable
job prospects.
Home appliance and power tool repairers
74,000
( )
(9)
Little change in employment is expected as the
increasing
number of appliances in use willbe offset by their
greater
reliability and durability. Jobprospects will
be best for
people who have a strongbackground in electronics.
Industrial machinery repairers
477,000
-3
-15,000
Employment is expected to decline as more firms
introduce
automated productionequipment that requires less
maintenance
than existingmachines. Because maintenance and
repair of
machinery arecrucial regardless of the level of
production,
industrialmachinery repairers generally are less
subject to
layoffs thanother workers.
Line installers and cable splicers
273,000
-11
-31,000
Overall employment is expected to decline. Employment
of
telephone and cable TVline installers and repairers
is
expected to decline sharply asthe conversion to
fiber optics
is completed and asmaintenance requirements are
reduced.
Employment ofelectrical power line installers
is expected to
grow moreslowly than average.
Millwrights
73,000
9
6,400
Slower than average employment growth is
expected.Millwrights continue to be needed to
maintain and
repairexisting machinery, to dismantle old machinery,
and to
installand maintain new equipment.
Mobile heavy equipment mechanics
96,000
4
3,900
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average,
matching the slow growth inthe amount of mobile
heavy
equipment in operation.Opportunities should be
best for
people who complete formaltraining programs in
diesel or
heavy equipment mechanics.
Motorcycle, boat, and small-engine mechanics
46,000
15
6,900
Overall employment is expected to grow about as
fast as
average as rising incomesenable consumers to buy
more boats
and outdoor powerequipment. Opportunities should
be best for
people whocomplete formal training programs.
Musical instrument repairers and tuners
12,000
9
1,100
Employment is expected to increase more slowly
than average,
even though moderategrowth is expected in the
number of
professional musicians,because the number of students
playing instruments shouldgrow only slowly.
Vending machine servicers and repairers
20,000
( )
(10)
Little change in employment is expected because
an increase
in the number of vendingmachines in use is offset
by the
greater reliability of newequipment.
CONSTRUCTION TRADES AND EXTRACTIVE OCCUPATIONS
Bricklayers and stonemasons
139,000
26
36,000
Average employment growth is expected as population
andbusiness growth create a need for new factories,
schools,hospitals, offices, and other structures,
and as
brick isincreasingly used for decorative work
and for
buildingexteriors.
Carpenters
990,000
20
197,000
Average employment growth is expected in response
todemand
for new housing, commercial buildings, andindustrial
plants
and the need to renovate and modernizeexisting
structures.
The demand for carpenters will be offsetsomewhat
by expected
productivity gains resulting from theincreased
use of
prefabricated components and better tools.Employment
opportunities should be plentiful.
Carpet installers
62,000
22
13,000
Average employment growth is expected in response
to
thecontinuing need to renovate and refurbish existing
structuresand growing demand for carpet in new
industrial
plants,schools, hospitals, and other structures.
Concrete masons and terrazzo workers
100,000
13
13,000
Despite strong demand for concrete and terrazzo,
productivity gains from improved materials, equipment,
and
tools will result in slower than average growth.
Drywall workers and lathers
121,000
37
44,000
Faster than average employment growth is expected
as
thelevel of new construction and renovation increases.
Many
jobopportunities will be available because of
replacement
needs.
Electricians
518,000
19
100,000
Average employment growth will stem from the need
toinstall
and maintain electrical devices and wiring in
homes,factories, offices, and other structures.
Installation
of thewiring for computers, telecommunications
equipment,
andother advanced technologies should also create
jobopportunities for electricians.
Glaziers
39,000
30
12,000
Faster than average employment growth is expected
due tothe
increase in new construction, the need to modernize
andrepair existing structures, and the increased
popularity
ofglass as a building material.
Insulation workers
57,000
40
22,000
Employment is expected to grow much faster than
average,reflecting the demand for insulation for
new
construction andrenovation, as well as the demand
for
asbestos removal inexisting structures. Job opportunities
should be plentifulbecause growth will be rapid
and turnover
is the highest of allconstruction occupations.
Painters and paperhangers
440,000
29
128,000
Faster than average employment growth is expected
asconstruction activity increases and the number
of
buildings inneed of repainting grows. Job prospects
should
be quitefavorable.
Plasterers
32,000
16
5,200
Employment is expected to grow as fast as average
due
togrowing appreciation for the durability and
attractiveness
oftroweled finishes and the need to repair plaster
surfaces
inolder buildings.
Plumbers and pipefitters
351,000
8
27,000
Slower than average employment growth will result
fromrising
productivity because the growing use of plastic
pipeand
fittings, more efficient sprinkler systems, and
otherlaborsaving technologies will offset much
of the
increasingdemand for plumbing services.
Roofers
127,000
22
28,000
Average employment growth is expected due to increases
innew
construction and the need to repair or replace
roofs
onexisting buildings. Employment will not keep
pace
withdemand because of productivity increases brought
about
byadvances in materials, technology, and tools.
Because of
highturnover, employment opportunities are expected
to
beplentiful.
Roustabouts
33,000
-33
-11,000
Employment is expected to decline as a result
of reduced
exploration and falling production in the domestic
oilindustry. Opportunities will be very limited.
Sheet-metal workers
91,000
37
34,000
Employment is expected to grow as fast as average
as
morefactories, shopping malls, homes, and other
structures
usingsheet metal are built. Additional job opportunities
will becreated as more efficient air-conditioning
and
heating systemsare installed in existing buildings.
Structural and reinforcing ironworkers
66,000
22
15,000
Average employment growth is expected due to the
rising
levels of industrial andcommercial construction,
as well as
the rehabilitation andmaintenance of an increasing
number of
older buildings,factories, power plants, highways
and
bridges. Job openingsfor ironworkers are usually
more
abundant during the springand summer, when construction
activity increases.
Tilesetters
30,000
25
7,400
Rising levels of construction activity and the
increasedpopularity of tile as a building material
should
ensure averageemployment growth. Job opportunities
will not
be as plentifulas in other construction occupations
because
the occupation issmall and turnover is relatively
low.
PRODUCTION OCCUPATIONS
Assemblers
Precision assemblers
334,000
-6
-18,000
Employment is expected to decline, with increasingautomation
offsetting any increase in employment that wouldhave
occurred due to industrial growth. However,opportunities
depend on the industries in which the jobs arelocated.
For
instance, keen competition is expected forassembly
jobs in
the aerospace and electronics manufacturingindustry.
Other
industries may provide more opportunities.
Blue-collar worker supervisors
1,757,000
12
217,000
Overall employment is expected to increase more
slowly than
average. Job creation varies byindustry, with
employment
expected to decline slightly inmanufacturing and
increase in
construction and most othernonmanufacturing industries.
Food processing occupations
Butchers and meat, poultry, and fish cutters
349,000
3
11,000
Employment is expected to increase more slowly
than average
as meat cuttingand processing shift from the store
to the
factory. Althoughconsumption of meat, poultry,
and fish will
continue toincrease, growth of lesser skilled
factory
machine cutter jobswill just barely offset the
decline of
skilled retail meatcutters.
Inspectors, testers, and graders
625,000
-10
-65,000
Employment is expected to decline. Manufacturers
are
increasingly using automatedinspection system
and assigning
inspection, testing, andgrading duties to production
workers
. There may becompetition for job openings.
Metalworking and plastics-working occupations
Boilermakers
26,000
-4
-1,100
Employment is expected to decline due to the trend
towardrepairing rather than replacing old boilers,
the use
of smallerboilers requiring less on-site assembly,
the
automation ofproduction technologies, and the
increased use
of importedboilers. There may be competition for
job
openings.
Jewelers
30,000
19
5,700
Average growth is expected. Job opportunities
for
jewelersdepend largely on jewelry sales and on
demand for
jewelryrepair services. Jewelry sales are expected
to remain
strong.Opportunities should be good for graduates
from
jewelertraining programs. The outlook will be
best in
jewelry storesand repair shops; competition is
expected for
jobs in jewelrymanufacturing.
Machinists and tool programmers
359,000
-1
-3,400
Employment is expected to decline slightly. Nevertheless,
job opportunities will be goodbecause, in recent
years,
employers have reported difficultiesin attracting
workers to
machining and tool programmingoccupations.
Metalworking and plastics-working machine operators
1,378,000
-3
-43,000
Overall employment is expected to decline, although
machine
operators in theplastics industry should fare
better than
their counterparts inmetalworking. Increasing
productivity
from automation andgrowing international competition
are
combining to dampenthe demand for machine operators.
Workers
able to operate avariety of machines, particularly
computer
controlledequipment, have the brightest prospects.
Tool and die makers
138,000
-7
-9,400
Employment is expected to decline because of
increasedautomation and imports of finished goods.
However,jobseekers with appropriate skills should
find
excellentopportunities because the number of tool
and die
makersreceiving training is not expected to be
as great as
the numberof retiring tool and die makers.
Welders, cutters, and welding machine operators
403,000
7
30,000
With automated welding systems taking the place
of some
workers, employment isexpected to increase more
slowly than
average. Manualwelders, especially those with
a wide variety
of skills, stillwill be needed for maintenance,
repair, and
other work thatcannot be automated.
Plant and systems operators
Electric power generating plant operators and
power
distributors and dispatchers
43,000
10
4,200
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average.
Construction ofpower plant capacity is expected
to be
moderate because ofoverbuilding in the past. The
increasing
use of automaticcontrols and more efficient equipment
should
further offsetthe need for new plant construction.
Keen
competition isexpected for jobs.
Stationary engineers
31,000
5
1,600
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average
asautomated and computerized equipment limits
the number
ofengineers needed. Job opportunities will be
best for those
withapprenticeship training or vocational school
courses
incomputerized controls and instrumentation.
Water and wastewater treatment plant operators
86,000
18
16,000
Employment is expected to grow as fast as average
as
population and economic growthspur the construction
of new
plants and the expansion ofexisting water and
wastewater
treatment services. Jobopportunities should be
good.
Printing Occupations
Prepress workers
167,000
13
22,000
Employment is expected to increase more slowly
thanaverage.
The increased use of computers in typesetting
andpage layout
should restrain job growth despite rising demandfor
printed
materials.
Printing press operators
241,000
20
47,000
Job growth is expected to be about as fast as
average as
needsfor printed materials grow. Employment of
offset,
gravure,and flexographic press operators will
grow, while
letterpressoperator jobs will decline.
Bindery workers
76,000
16
12,000
Employment is expected to increase about as fast
as
averagein response to the growing volume of printed
materials thatmust be bound. Needs for lesser
skilled
workers will declineas bookbinding machinery becomes
more
efficient andcomplex.
Textile, apparel, and furnishings occupations
Apparel workers
986,000
-19
-183,000
Employment is expected to decline due to increases
inimports, offshore assembly, and automation.
However,replacement needs will result in some
job openings.
Shoe and leather workers and repairers
22,000
-20
-4,300
Employment is expected to decline, primarily because
inexpensive imports have madeshoe replacement
a reasonable
alternative to shoe repair formany.
Textile machinery operators
284,000
-17
-47,000
Employment declines are expected as a result of
greater use
ofautomated machinery and changing business
practices.However, there will still be job opportunities
stemming fromthe need to replace workers who leave
their
jobs.
Upholsterers
60,000
11
6,700
Employment is expected to increase more slowly
than
averageas growth in jobs in furniture manufacturing
is
offset somewhat by declining employment in reupholstery
shops. Opportunities for skilled upholsterers
should be
good.
Woodworking occupations
341,000
8
28,000
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average,largely reflecting increasing productivity
due to
technologicaladvances and stiffer international
competition.
Opportunitiesshould be favorable for woodworkers
who
specialize inmoldings, cabinets, stairs, and windows.
Miscellaneous production occupations
Dental laboratory technicians
48,000
3
1,500
Little change in employment is expected. The fluoridation
ofdrinking water and greater emphasis on preventive
dentalcare since the early 1960's have improved
the overall
dentalhealth of the population. Instead of full
or partial
dentures,most people will need only a bridge or
crown.
Ophthalmic laboratory technicians
19,000
22
4,100
Average growth is expected in response to rising
demand for
corrective lensesand fashionable glasses.
Painting and coating machine operators
151,000
1
1,800
Little change in overall employment is expected
as
technological improvements raiseproductivity.
Employment of
painting and coating machineoperators should fall
slightly
in manufacturing due to theexpanding use of industrial
robots and increase modestly innonmanufacturing
industries.
Photographic process workers
63,000
20
13,000
Average growth will stem from the increasing volume
of
filmto be processed, as long as film remains the
mainstay
ofphotographic processing. Digital cameras have
the
potentialto displace photographic process machine
operators
but arenot likely to affect demand for precision
photographic processworkers.
TRANSPORTATION AND MATERIAL MOVING OCCUPATIONS
Busdrivers
562,000
21
119,000
Overall employment is expected to grow about as
fast
asaverage. Job opportunities will be best for
school
busdriversdue to increased enrollments. Local
and intercity
busdrivingjobs that offer the best working conditions
and
the highestearnings are expected to attract the
most
competition.
Material moving equipment operators
983,000
13
129,000
Employment is expected to grow more slowly than
average.
Equipment improvements,including the growing automation
of
material handling infactories and warehouses,
are expected
to restrain the growthof this occupation. However,
many job
opportunities will arisefrom the need to replace
the many
experienced workers wholeave this large occupation
each
year.
Rail transportation workers
116,000
21
25,000
Overall employment is expected to grow about as
fast
asaverage as an increase in freight shipped by
railroad is
offsetby more efficient operations and labor-saving
innovations.Employment of subway and streetcar
operators
should growmuch faster than average due to the
rapid
expansion of urbanrail systems.
Taxidriver and chauffeurs
120,000
18
22,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average
aslocal and urban travel increases. Competition
is expected
forjobs that offer the highest earnings or best
workingconditions.
Truckdrivers
2,720,000
26
708,000
Employment is expected to grow about as fast as
average.
Jobopportunities in this large occupation should
be
plentifulbecause of the growing demand for truck
transportationservices and the need to replace
drivers who
leave theoccupation. However, competition is expected
for
jobs thatoffer the highest earnings or best working
conditions.
Water transportation occupations
54,000
-5
-2,500
Employment is expected to decline due to foreign
competition
and technological innovations that allow fewer
workers to
operate a vessel.
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers
4,451,000
17
776,000
Average growth is expected overall, reflecting
growth of the
industries that employ these workersand rising
employment of
the skilled workers whom theyassist. Projected
growth varies
widely by occupation. Whilethe employment of service
station
attendants will decline, thatof parking lot attendants
will
grow faster than average.Overall job openings
should be
numerous because thisoccupational group is very
large and
turnover is relativelyhigh.
THE ARMED FORCES
1,808,000( )
-14
-254,000
Diminishing threats to U.S. security have led
to reductions
inmilitary forces. Further reductions are planned
through
1997,after which the level of military forces
should
remainrelatively constant. In spite of this, job
opportunities shouldbe good in all branches of
the Armed
Forces because peopleof prime recruiting age will
account
for a smaller share of thetotal population than
in the past.
Opportunities for enlistedpersonnel are very limited
for
those without a high schooldiploma. Competition
for officer
positions has always beenkeen and will continue
to be so.
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